Venezuela: The Latest Battleground in the Geopolitical War between the US, Russia and China

In January of this year, at a distance of less than 2,800 miles from the United States, several Tupolev TU-160—Russian strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons—remained in Venezuela to perform joint military exercises with the armed forces of that country. Nicolas Maduro’s regime, with its strong political ties to Russia, China, Turkey, Syria, Cuba and Iran, has become a focus of political instability in Latin America. Additionally, the world’s largest reserves of crude oil (as certified by OPEC), and important reserves of gold, bauxite, iron, coal, diamonds and rare minerals such as coltan (appreciated in the electronics industry) have made Venezuela an important new geopolitical objective, for both allies and enemies.

The current Venezuelan crisis has transcended its borders to become more than just an internal political struggle between the government and the opposition. The conflict has intensified and expanded into an instrument of struggle between the US, Russia, China and various European allies. It is not easy to predict the winner of this fight.

The Russians maintain very strong economic and political allegiances with Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Russian capital investments in the crude oil and gold mining segments account for nearly 18 billion dollars—Venezuela’s cash flow is dependent on their evolution and stability. The Russians are the main suppliers of weapons and military equipment: Venezuela is the only country in Latin America whose armed forces are equipped with Kalasnikov AK103/AK104 assault rifles. Russia has also provided rocket launchers, tanks, remote control missiles, gunships, helicopters and several squadrons of Sukhoi 30 aircraft fighter bombers.

Russia’s intense presence in Venezuela is a strategic response by the Kremlin, designed to maintain its position in the battle for world supremacy. The confrontation between Russia, Europe and the US intensified with the latter powers’ refusal to transform the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) into the axis of European security, as requested by Moscow. Instead, European security was left in the hands of NATO, an institution whose original purpose was to oppose Russia, and was systematically expanded eastward. The situation was intensified by the European Union’s wave of expansion into the east.

The bombing of Belgrade and the occupation of Serbia by NATO, as well as the subsequent recognition of Kosovan independence, over Russian objections, could be seen as part of an indirect confrontation with Russia, as could support for the color revolutions in the Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, under the aegis of the Washington-led Freedom Agenda; and the infamous US effort to promote the construction of natural gas pipelines between the Caspian states—a very expensive process, designed to separate those countries from the sphere of Russian influence, while reducing their dependence on Russian hydrocarbons.

Russia has sought to undermine the UN Security Council, the only forum in which Moscow and Washington enjoy equal status. Some members of the Council have taken positions that appear to support America’s desire to nullify Russia’s influence. It took Russia eighteen years to gain admission to the World Trade Organization, in 2012—the WTO’s longest ever membership negotiation—due to Washington’s continual objections, which many consider a legacy of the Cold War.

These Russia-hostile international policies have rendered Russia’s relationship with the West highly fragile—a situation which may be exacerbated by Europe’s active intervention in the Ukraine issue.

One of Moscow’s responses to all this has been to support Venezuelan populism, in a bid to weaken the power of their western rivals. The destructuring of the western political establishment, the weakening of the network of Washington-controlled alliances (particularly NATO) and the breakdown of the European Union have all helped Russia achieve its major geostrategic goals without firing a shot. Russia’s strong position in Venezuela (which is part of the US backyard), is an attempt to goad America and send a warning. It is difficult for Washington to curb the progress of the Russians in Latin America because, in both economic and military terms, Venezuela is practically a satellite of Russia.

With the inauguration of Bush senior, the Cold War came to an end. In 1990, the new tenant of the White House began a new era of Latin American relations, based on the Initiative for the Americas, the most important element of which was the establishment of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), through which the US sought to negotiate multiple treaties—beginning with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the US, Mexico and Canada. By a decade later, however, Latin American economics was characterized not by the FTAA, but by the ubiquity of China. Virtually out of nowhere, this distant Asian country became not only the primary or secondary trading partner of most countries in the region, particularly in the south, but also the region’s largest source of external financing. The US’s obsessive focus on the Middle East, following the events of September 11, might explain US passivity in the face of China’s assault on its historical sphere of influence.

Another important factor leveraged by China to expand its influence was the avalanche of left and center-left regimes in Latin America, which followed the arrival of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela in 1989: Lula and Lagos in 2002; Nestor Kirchner in 2003; Tabaré Vásquez in 2004; Morales in 2005; Ortega, Correa, Bachelet and Zelaya in 2006; Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in 2007; Lugo and Funes in 2009, Mujica in 2010; and Rousseff in 2011—accompanied by successive re-elections. Particularly significantly, South American leader Brazil was part of this process. In 2003, Washington and the countries of Latin America therefore agreed that the FTAA would not expand beyond the countries already involved in admission negotiations. This has all significantly weakened US influence in the region.

Many experts opine that China’s economic expansion helps explain the fact that the international system now provides increasing room for maneuver—especially in Latin America, in which states were empowered to develop their own preferred domestic and international policies. It is foreseeable that China will expand Latin American political opportunities—but it will do this primarily through trade, not through direct confrontation with the US, allowing US influence to implode by itself, something which will obviously require a serious response from the US. The tranquility—even passivity—with which the United States has allowed itself to be displaced by China in its access to raw materials is impressive. Especially since natural resources are usually considered safe and even strategic.

As part of its global positioning strategy, China, like Russia, has economically invaded America’s historic backyard. In Venezuela, in particular, Beijing has become the main foreign creditor. Owning billions of dollars in Venezuelan debt bonds has provided China with substantial privileges and economic advantages, allowing it to easily access oil and other strategic and rare mineral resources, such as coltan. This Chinese financial invasion has taken place right under Washington’s nose. Now that the US government feels the need to fix the Venezuelan political problem—because it is spilling out past national borders and affecting the political stability of its neighbors—Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador and the entire region—they find themselves surprised to be negotiating with China. But any intervention in Venezuela would affect Chinese capital investments.

Perhaps, in the past, the US did not see China as a strategic rival: after all, the US facilitated China’s 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization and was a coadjutant force in its economic development. These actions stemmed from the belief that Chinese economic development would naturally lead to the country’s pluralistic, democratic and liberal opening. These motives have since radically changed. Mauricio Macri’s 2015 electoral triumph in Argentina has resulted in a political avalanche of right and center-right governments in Latin America. In addition, Brazil has fallen into the hands of its most pro-American government since the military dictatorship.

The relationship between China and the US has been growing increasingly complex. In addition to Washington’s economic and technological constraints on Beijing (tariffs and strong restrictions on the Huawei technology giant), there are geopolitical restraints on the Asia-Pacific region. The US hopes to become dominant in that part of the world. But, over the past few years, China has become the hegemonic power in Asia and its natural aspiration is strategic parity with Washington: China does not aim at global strategic rivalry with the US, but shared primacy in that geographical area. China’s economic strength, which so far has been unaffected by global financial crises, is a very significant factor, which has not been taken into account.

Washington’s fundamental problem is that it will not share power, but will do whatever it takes to preserve its global primacy: the US can consult with other countries, but never negotiate with them on equal terms. It aims at significant, unlimited and unique power within the international system. Everything indicates that China wishes to change the Asian order, just as much as the US wishes to preserve it. China and the US’s geopolitical divergence has led to Washington’s militant attitude towards maritime disputes involving Beijing. By directly supporting all the regional countries that are involved in maritime disputes with China, and by challenging all the restrictions imposed by China, the US has become its greatest geostrategic rival.

The US position towards China has taken a 180 degree turn. In the words of the Economist:

Today convergence is dead. America has come to see China as a strategic rival—a malevolent actor and a rule-breaker. … Democrats and Republicans are vying to outdo each other in bashing China. Not since the late 1940s has the mood among American businessfolk, diplomats and the armed forces swung so rapidly behind the idea that the United States faces a new ideological and strategic rival.

All this suggests that Washington wishes to curb Chinese penetration into Latin America, which is currently strongest in Venezuela, which has therefore become a flashpoint for a US determined to confront China’s presence and influence in the region. Russia is also invested in Venezuela’s strategic and geopolitical importance. The US Government has just told Moscow that it has no business in a Latin American country, located just 2,800 miles from the United States. One thing is clear: Venezuela is currently a very important battleground in the international geopolitical struggle.

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9 comments

  1. The problem of Venezuela is not only geopolitical. It Is a problem identified with a lack of freedom, failed democracy, and human rights. The hidden issue in the case of Venezuela is the violation of human rights by a government that announces that it is socialist, but in reality it is a dictatorship. International public opinion reveals much hypocrisy over the Venezuelan problem. Many countries have demanded that the government of Maduro call for free elections, and independence of powers (legislative, electoral and justice), release of political prisoners and cessation of censorship of the press. However, Maduro’s response to these claims has been very simple: the blame for the problems of the country are due to the economic blockade imposed by Trump and countries should not get into the affairs of Venezuelans. Is There Anyone who can consider these just, logical and reasonable answers? And meanwhile follows the drama for millions of Venezuelans suffering from hyperinflation that pushes them to the limit of misery, suffering in addition to hunger, lack of medicines and the total collapse of public services (electricity, water, urban toilet, telecommunications) .

    Many do not know that the monthly minimum wage that accrue more than half of Venezuela’s workforce, is 5.00 dollars (exactly: 5.00 dollars per month) and continues to fall with the accelerated depreciation of Bolivar. With an average annual inflation of 2 million% (yes, not a figure error, although it seems incredible annual inflation of the year 2018 was 2 million%) and more than half of the workers earning 5.00 dollars monthly, the question is: Who can live? Or how can they cover basic necessities such as food, medicine, clothing and footwear? I think it’s impossible.

    I think it is time for countries to put aside their hypocrisy or to stop looking the other way, with regard to the situation in Venezuela. The humanist principle, which many countries have as a social achievement, requires that there be effective and definitive aid to solve the problem of Venezuela and prevent millions of Venezuelans from continuing to suffer the punishment of a dictatorial and ruthless government.

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  2. It Is an interesting article that explores the antecedents of the Russian behavior, as a reaction to the constant opposition that they have suffered from the United States and the West, for, for example, to allow their participation in the World Trade Organization. It Is obvious that now the position of the Russians, is defiant and challenging, and certainly are willing to defend their interests against anyone who tries to stop or meddle in their interests. Venezuela has unfortunately been put in a very delicate position and has committed itself without economic autonomy and its sovereignty. Now they are in the hands of Chinese and Russians, with the disadvantages that this causes, with many economic and political problems.

    The case of Venezuela is a very interesting example for any society, as to the importance of the fact that citizens must demand that governments, the proper fulfillment of their functions, that fundamentally should be to seek the welfare of the citizens and to take care of security and sovereignty. For the future wellbeing of Venezuelans, it is logical to wish that the country can get out of this delicate position and can retake the path of genuine democracy, respect for human rights, political independence and sustainable economic growth.

  3. The text may not be informative in the sense that we all, in one way or another, already know the interests of Russia, China and the US over Venezuela, but if I engage in a single article the complexity of the matter seems to me to be of note .

    While it is true that Venezuela must try to get ahead, without the “help” and “benevolence” of these great powers that have little by little gotten their hands in our country, the US tries to get out this big crap that has fallen on Venezuela, and this is much more positive of the “important economic investments” that the Chinese government makes on our country in an intelligent and macabre way, say, to the rotten Venezuelan government, which ends up being more of the same.

    After all, what we have on the table is that Venezuela is already intervened and in the hands of Russians and Chinese. In my opinion, it is a true lament that the US has neglected to say in some way its primacy, that within everything, as they say, it is better to know bad than to know.

    I only hope that Venezuela can soon get ahead and recover how wonderful it was but that it will definitely be again.

  4. Venezuela’s political condition is very delicate. Nicolas Maduro’s government, given its inability to solve the serious economic and social problems that caused its erroneous and inconvenient measures, has seen in Russia the only alternative to maintain power. But this has involved delivering large natural resource wealth to Chinese and Russians in exchange for their geopolitical support. It Is true that since the Obama administration, the Americans neglected their attention to Venezuela. In fact, Obama all he did was declare Venezuela as a threat to the United states, but nothing more.

    This lack of attention originated that Chinese and Russians, accessed great wealth in hydrocarbons and minerals. Now there is little that the United States can do to curb this kind of economic and political invasion, which is staged in its backyard. As described by the author of the article, now any management of Trump versus Maduro, stumbles with Chinese and Russians, which puts this negotiation qualifies on a very problematic scale.

    The truth is that, like international opinion or not, now the situation and evolution of Venezuela, must be carefully observed and analyzed by the West, since it has become a country with State socialism, which functions as a branch of China and Russia. The interests of Venezuela have changed deeply, remember that Hugo Chavez always wanted a multipolar world, but the efforts of Maduro have gone against this desire, as they have intensified support for bipolar power, ie the United States and the West against Russia and China. Democratic countries must be very careful about all this

  5. A necessary truth: The only way to understand the complex and extreme situation of poverty and human rights violation that Venezuela suffers is to live here. And It is the only way to understand because the majority of the population asks Mature to abandon its terrible government. The recent blackouts that have affected and still affect 95% of the population have increased the loss of citizens ‘ well-being and the decline in essential human rights, such as the right to water to sanitation. The population is helpless before a repressive Government and absent will to help the population. The only concern of Maduro, is to prevent the gringos (as we say to the Americans) to take him out of power and make public the intense corruption and human rights violation of his regime.

    Few know that after Cuba, Venezuela is the country with the most political prisoners in the American continent. Although the government denies that there are political prisoners, there are more than four hundred detainees (between military and civilian) at the headquarters of the Military Counterintelligence Unit of the Ministry of Military and the Political Police (SEBIN: Bolivarian Intelligence Service) which has not had access to due judicial process. For Example: His lawyers are unaware of the causes of his arrest, the judges have not decided the duration of his sentence, they are not allowed to visit relatives, many have suffered torture and others have died in confinement. To the countless voices that have been internationally opposed to Trump’s proposal to use any option to end the Maduro government, I can honestly tell you: Maduro is the worst ruler who has had Venezuela, and has destroyed the social relations of justice and freedom of the country, because it is simply a bloodthirsty dictator who has taken control of all the public powers (legislative, electoral and judicial).

    All This makes him a true tyrant disguised as democrat, who starves the people but opposes any international intervention for the blatant violations of human rights of Venezuelans. To those who do not want to believe it, I simply invite you to come to live in Venezuela, stay here with us a few months and will realize who is really Nicolas Maduro…

  6. The inability of Nicolas Maduro’s government to solve Venezuela’s serious economic and social problems (which it generated by applying senseless economic measures that caused the economic debacle of the agricultural and industrial sectors, and in addition, it caused the bankruptcy of the hydrocarbon industry, and the sectors of iron, alumina and steel and petrochemical), threw the country in the arms of the Russian Empire, which its extreme repressive capitalism, has seen in Venezuela a jewel very prized by its numerous sources of natural and energetic resources, as well as its strategic geographical position on the north facade of south-America, less than three thousand miles from the United States.

    Many criticize Trump’s military intervention claims in Venezuela, but few have expressed concern about the disguised but growing form that Putin is invading Venezuela, on the economic and military side. Is there any doubt that this is not an intervention?, or that Russia’s intentions with Venezuela, are for brotherly love?, o, after so many bloody Russian invasions we still believe that their interests are for the welfare of the countries involved?

  7. The concentration of Chinese and Russian military forces in Venezuela is increasing. This News was generated during the day of yesterday:

    A group of Chinese soldiers arrived in Venezuela on Sunday as part of a cooperation program between Beijing and Caracas. More than 120 soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army of China reportedly arrived on Margarita Island in Venezuela to deliver humanitarian aid and military supplies to government forces. The arrival of the People’s Liberation Army in Venezuela occurs a few days after the Russian armed forces deployed in the country to set up a military helicopter training centre. However, such actions in Moscow and Beijing caused strong criticism from the administration of US President Donald Trump and several U.S. congressmen. In response, the United States is threatening Russia and the People’s Republic of China with the imposition of new sanctions. “Maduro asks not to intervene in Venezuela while he invites the security forces of Cuba and Russia, so that he and his friends can continue looting Venezuela. It Is time for Venezuelan institutions to defend their sovereignty. Russia and Cuba, tweeted Us secretary of State Mike Pompeo, on March 28.

    China took this step as a direct support to the Venezuelan regime to prevent Washington’s attempts to overthrow dictator Nicolas Maduro, especially since Russia did the same thing last week. These actions of the Russian and Chinese military seem to be a game of power against the administration of the United States, which is actively seeking the elimination of the illegitimate government of Maduro in the South American country. Therefore, this military contingent must be seen as a countermeasure against possible military intervention. In turn, Maduro, in his Twitter account, welcomed the advent of Chinese humanitarian aid and said: “Venezuela is breaking the imperialist siege and advancing toward victory.” The United States has tried to deliver humanitarian aid to Venezuela from Colombia; However, the Maduro regime argues that the purpose of these deliveries is to “transport weapons” to the opposition.

    Source: http://www.israelnoticias.com

  8. Lets see how this game of thrones plays for US and Trump on next year elections. Most of his economic plans and decisions have had actually a positive effect, contrary to what was expected, but I dont see Trump willing to share the cake. Quite opposite, he has and will use Americans patriotism and idea of supreme world power to push Rusia and China, so unfortunately smaller and dependent economies are the one suffering the most. On both sides, there is not actual interest on helping Venezuela (in this case).

  9. To me, this crisis is depressing because it shows the great powers vying for resources (lending credence to the oft repeated “it’s all about oil” mantra) in foreign countries. Of course, that’s to be expected in geopolitics and I’m not some doe eyed idealist.

    On a separate note, this article doesn’t come across as particularly informative. There’s nothing here we didn’t already know. Going forward, we may consider the implications of both China and Russia challenging the United States in Asia and Europe, respectively. Seems like both will make some gains because the U.S. will be stretched thinner than normal.

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